Euribor-linked variable · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical Euribor-linked variable in إستونيا rises from 4.20% today to 4.95% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
البيانات بتاريخ 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Estonia is the most Euribor-exposed mortgage market in the euro area, with essentially all lending floating against 6-month Euribor. Bank margins are wide relative to the western euro area because the market is concentrated among a small number of Nordic-owned banks, which is why the Estonian spread over the ECB rate sits above the euro-area average even though the index tracks it exactly.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in إستونيا, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| الشهر | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | المتوقع Euribor-linked variable | الفارق |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.50% | 4.25% | +1.75pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.50% | 4.28% | +1.78pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.73% | 4.36% | +1.63pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.73% | 4.42% | +1.69pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.81% | 4.48% | +1.67pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.98% | 4.57% | +1.58pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.98% | 4.64% | +1.65pp |
| 2027-05 | 3.06% | 4.71% | +1.65pp |
| 2027-06 | 3.14% | 4.78% | +1.65pp |
| 2027-07 | 3.19% | 4.85% | +1.66pp |
| 2027-08 | 3.19% | 4.90% | +1.71pp |
| 2027-09 | 3.21% | 4.95% | +1.74pp |
| الدولة | Typical Product | سعر الرهن العقاري | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| سلوفاكيا | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +1.80pp |
| إستونيا | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.70pp |
| لاتفيا | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.50pp |
| اليونان | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| ليتوانيا | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| هولندا | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| قبرص | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| إيطاليا | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| أيرلندا | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| بلجيكا | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.20pp |
| ألمانيا | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.15pp |
| النمسا | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| سلوفينيا | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| البرتغال | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| كرواتيا | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| لوكسمبورغ | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| فرنسا | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +0.95pp |
| إسبانيا | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| فنلندا | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| مالطا | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +0.80pp |