20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso in إيطاليا rises from 3.75% today to 4.50% by 2027-09, about 75 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
البيانات بتاريخ 2026-10-20. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Italian borrowers choose between a mutuo a tasso fisso, usually 20 to 30 years fixed and priced off the euro swap curve, and a mutuo a tasso variabile indexed to Euribor plus a spread. The fixed share rose sharply after 2022. Italian spreads over the ECB rate also carry a sovereign component: because Italian banks hold large BTP portfolios, movements in the BTP-Bund spread feed into bank funding costs and therefore into mortgage pricing.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in إيطاليا, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| الشهر | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | المتوقع 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | الفارق |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.50% | 3.79% | +1.29pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.50% | 3.83% | +1.33pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.73% | 3.91% | +1.18pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.73% | 3.97% | +1.24pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.81% | 4.03% | +1.22pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.98% | 4.12% | +1.13pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.98% | 4.19% | +1.20pp |
| 2027-05 | 3.06% | 4.26% | +1.20pp |
| 2027-06 | 3.14% | 4.33% | +1.20pp |
| 2027-07 | 3.19% | 4.40% | +1.21pp |
| 2027-08 | 3.19% | 4.45% | +1.26pp |
| 2027-09 | 3.21% | 4.50% | +1.29pp |
| الدولة | Typical Product | سعر الرهن العقاري | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| سلوفاكيا | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +1.80pp |
| إستونيا | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.70pp |
| لاتفيا | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.50pp |
| اليونان | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| ليتوانيا | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.40pp |
| هولندا | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| قبرص | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.35pp |
| إيطاليا | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| أيرلندا | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.25pp |
| بلجيكا | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.20pp |
| ألمانيا | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.15pp |
| النمسا | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| سلوفينيا | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.10pp |
| البرتغال | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| كرواتيا | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| لوكسمبورغ | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.05pp |
| فرنسا | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +0.95pp |
| إسبانيا | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| فنلندا | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +0.85pp |
| مالطا | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +0.80pp |