10-30-Year fixed · Policy rate set by the European Central Bank
Interest-rate futures currently imply that the typical 10-30-Year fixed in هولندا rises from 3.85% today to 4.41% by 2027-08, about 56 basis points higher. This is not a forecast: it is the mortgage rate consistent with what markets are already pricing for European Central Bank policy.
البيانات بتاريخ 2026-09-05. Derived from interest-rate futures pricing for the policy rate, plus this market's long-run mortgage spread, pass-through factor and transmission lag. Market pricing changes daily and has been wrong before. Not financial advice.
Dutch mortgages are long-fixed, commonly 10, 20 or 30 years, and are supported by two structural features: mortgage interest relief (hypotheekrenteaftrek), which is being phased down, and the NHG guarantee scheme, which lowers the rate on loans below its ceiling. Rates are tiered by loan-to-value, so the headline national figure blends materially different prices.
The rate quoted above is the ECB's MFI new-business rate for loans for house purchase in هولندا, so it reflects what borrowers are actually signing today rather than the stock of existing loans.
The euro area has one policy rate and one futures curve. This table applies the euro-area composite's implied 12-month change to this member's current new-business rate; it does not model a separate national pass-through.
| الشهر | Implied ECB Deposit Rate | المتوقع 10-30-Year fixed | الفارق |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.89% | +1.42pp |
| 2026-10 | 2.47% | 3.92% | +1.45pp |
| 2026-11 | 2.54% | 3.96% | +1.41pp |
| 2026-12 | 2.68% | 4.02% | +1.34pp |
| 2027-01 | 2.68% | 4.07% | +1.38pp |
| 2027-02 | 2.75% | 4.12% | +1.37pp |
| 2027-03 | 2.86% | 4.18% | +1.33pp |
| 2027-04 | 2.86% | 4.23% | +1.38pp |
| 2027-05 | 2.92% | 4.28% | +1.37pp |
| 2027-06 | 2.96% | 4.33% | +1.37pp |
| 2027-07 | 2.98% | 4.38% | +1.40pp |
| 2027-08 | 2.98% | 4.41% | +1.43pp |
| الدولة | Typical Product | سعر الرهن العقاري | Spread vs ECB |
|---|---|---|---|
| سلوفاكيا | Fixed-period mortgage (3-5 yr) | 4.30% | +2.05pp |
| إستونيا | Euribor-linked variable | 4.20% | +1.95pp |
| لاتفيا | Euribor-linked variable | 4.00% | +1.75pp |
| اليونان | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| ليتوانيا | Euribor-linked variable | 3.90% | +1.65pp |
| هولندا | 10-30-Year fixed | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| قبرص | Fixed-period mortgage | 3.85% | +1.60pp |
| إيطاليا | 20-30-Year mutuo a tasso fisso | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| أيرلندا | 3-5-Year fixed | 3.75% | +1.50pp |
| بلجيكا | 20-Year fixed | 3.70% | +1.45pp |
| ألمانيا | 10-Year Festzinsbindung | 3.65% | +1.40pp |
| النمسا | 10-15-Year fixed | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| سلوفينيا | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.60% | +1.35pp |
| البرتغال | Mixed / fixed-period mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| كرواتيا | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| لوكسمبورغ | Fixed-rate mortgage | 3.55% | +1.30pp |
| فرنسا | 20-25-Year taux fixe | 3.45% | +1.20pp |
| إسبانيا | 15-30-Year hipoteca tipo fijo | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| فنلندا | Euribor-linked variable | 3.35% | +1.10pp |
| مالطا | Variable-rate mortgage | 3.30% | +1.05pp |